What’s Shaping Fragrance in 2026
Watching the fragrance industry evolve from the perspective of a retailer has given us a front row seat to how much it has grown, fractured, and rebuilt itself. Nearly fifteen years of daily exposure has given us a perspective and the ability to find patterns and shed light on what’s coming before it becomes consensus.
Niche perfume has been building momentum for years, and a huge part of that is the steady rise of people sharing personal experiences with niche perfumery. We’ve seen it firsthand. Our customer base has grown as they share what they love, what they wear, and what they discover at our shop.
From where we stand in the perfume industry, 2026 feels like a pivotal year. It comes back to progress and direction. How do we lean into that momentum without losing the human side of things? How do we make sure whatever comes next doesn’t replace connection, but actually deepens it? Progress should move forward, and it should also move toward authenticity.
Oversaturation and the Release Cycle
Last year saw a remarkable number of perfumes released, over 6,000 by many estimates. That includes reformulations of older classics, flankers from big brands, and a flood of releases from niche and independent houses. And it doesn’t even account for the smallest startups trying to gain footing in the industry.
When that much perfume hits the market, it requires us, and our customers, to be more discerning. It’s not a failure if an amazing perfume gets missed. It’s fatigue.
Even more perfume will come out in 2026 and 2027, but the future isn’t something we wait for. It’s already here. Our responsibility is to keep the standard high while helping the right niche and independent brands find their place.
At Perfumology, we feel that pressure in real time. At least five brands a day reach out to us on different platforms, and we always accept their work for evaluation with the understanding that we are overwhelmed with options. With endless volume comes a higher standard, and it forces us to be honest about what belongs on the shelf and what doesn’t.
People will no longer be swayed by “the best materials.” That language has become redundant. What will make a difference is the people behind the brand, and the unique offering that only they can create.
We want to be moved by the artform, or an undeniable quality on the skin that makes us want to wear it again. And the people behind it matter just as much, because the story and the intention always show up in the perfume.
AI and Fragrance
Artificial intelligence is going to make a bigger impact starting this year. We’re going to see it everywhere in marketing, and before long it’ll be hard to tell what’s real and what’s manufactured.
I think our customers will notice the difference, and reject the inauthenticity. A lot of people aren’t shopping for a product alone. They’re looking for human connection, and that’s a major reason they shop with us and with the brands we carry.
The brands who use AI as a tool to emphasize who they are as people will win the most customers. The ones who use it as a shortcut for identity won’t.
AI is also influencing perfume production. We invested in Scircle, which uses human made accords to produce a custom perfume. Scircle is an example of AI supporting the process while still relying on the human element. Technology can assist, but I believe perfumery still requires the human element from start to finish.
Some brands have tried to replace perfumers entirely, and I don’t think that kind of output will meet the standards our customers expect, or the standards we hold for our shelves. You know that feeling when you realize a cute video is AI? The same disappointment will apply to perfumes.
The Future of Influencers
There’s also a major shift happening with influencer marketing. Many of our friends have grown social media platforms to huge numbers, and I’m proud of them. A lot of people find them entertaining, and they’ve been valuable to the community. At the same time, some are losing authenticity.
Brands can demand positive feedback, and creators have to walk a fine line between a real experience and a push. The result is a growing gap between content and depth of experience.
Just like the number of perfume releases, the content itself is getting saturated. Some things go viral and some have lasting power. A hype driven burst might last two or three weeks before people move on to the next thing. Quality tends to last longer.
In 2026, I expect that trend to continue, but with a new contender rising alongside it: brands and retailers telling their own stories.
Perfumology was born to share the narrative on behalf of the small brands that struggle to get the word out next to large brands with big budgets. In our shop, they sit on the same shelf, and they deserve the same attention.
What Still Matters
The only thing that matters, from our perspective, is authenticity. What feels real? What stands out as extraordinary? What moves us like an incredible song?
Perfume is an intersection of wearable art and fashion. It’s an ancient industry that constantly evolves. And as the market gets louder and more crowded, smart consumers will keep searching for what fits them best, not what’s being pushed the hardest.
I hope they support the small businesses taking risks, and the people putting their names behind what they create.